NAEFS return intervals are signaling the significance of this storm as well, with IVT values registering at "outside of the climatology", which means that none of the late October reanalyses were this wet between 19. The shift of tails values are approaching 5 along the eastern Sierra for snow and QPF, which for you stats nerds means that multiple ensemble members are predicting an extreme QPF/snow event. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index values are notable for most weather elements during the Sunday-Monday time frame. Snow levels look to remain above 7500 feet for the event, so impacts will be limited to higher passes.Īfter digging through all of the probabilistic guidance, this event is shaping up to be one for the record books. Light QPF amounts under a tenth of an inch are possible in the Sierra as far south as Mammoth, but the bulk of the moisture looks to remain north of Tahoe. Quick hitting and weaker system with the main impacts in the northern Sierra, northeast California, and northern Nevada. Winds will be rather breezy tonight into Friday as well, with valley location gusts 25-25 mph and ridges pushing gusts to 80 mph. Lingering showers may result in pass level travel difficulties from late afternoon into the early evening hours. Snow levels will fall behind the cold front on Friday, reaching around 6500-7500 feet by late Friday afternoon, however, most of the precipitation will have passed by that time. Flash Flood and Debris Flow Watch is in effect for tonight into early Friday for the Dixie, Sheep, Walker, and Beckwourth burn scars. Higher resolution models still highlight the potential for an NCFR with high hourly rain rates into northeast California and the Sierra. Deep southerly flow will place the best precipitation chances on the western slopes, with not much spillover until late morning Friday. There will be a decent push of moisture into the Sierra, primarily near and north of Ebbetts Pass, with relatively high snow levels (8500-10000 feet) starting later today. There is some significant weather arriving late tonight with storms escalating through the weekend. Winds will be breezy, but nothing out of the ordinary. Each storm will gradually be a bit stronger and wetter as well, so now is the time to prepare and make sure your drainage areas and gutters are cleaned out of debris.Įarly today the moist flow continues into northern California with upslope ascent maintaining light, intermittent showers across the Sierra. Today through Sunday morning, very active weather week ahead as multiple storms push into the west. The following is from the National Weather Service Weather Discussion page as of Thursday morning: Significant wet-dense snow accumulations are possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra. Saturday morning may be a good day to clean those drains and gutters ahead of the storm, the weather service advises. Rainfall rates may be intense enough to generate debris flows on and near the Dixie, Sheep, Walker, and Beckwourth burn scars.įor Saturday night into Monday, forecasters have Increasing confidence for periods of heavy rain, even in the mountains with possible flood impacts on burn areas, urban flooding in poor drainage spots, and rock slides in steep terrain. Forecasters expect a period of heavy rain in the Sierra from Donner Pass area northward to Plumas and Lassen counties. Thursday night and Friday, the weather service says warm, moist air mass will keep snow levels near and above 8,000 feet with the first storm. Localized urban flooding is also possible.Ī number of weather systems lined up is forecast to bring periods of heavy rain to the Carson City area through the weekend and into Tuesday, with western Nevada valleys seeing up to 2 inches, and 2 to 3 feet of snow possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra before its over, according to the National Weather Service. Rock falls in canyons and ponding of water on roads will create hazardous driving conditions, especially along Interstate 80 between Truckee and Reno. Rises on small creeks and streams are expected, equipment in and near river and creek channels should be moved to safety. This includes the Tamarack, Caldor, and Numbers burn scars. Debris flows, ash flows, rock falls, and tree falls are possible, especially on or near burn scars and steep terrain. High snow levels will lower to near 6,000 feet sometime Monday, according to the NWS. Heavy rainfall from an atmospheric river will move into the region Saturday night and may continue into Monday morning. UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for portions of western Nevada, including Carson City, Carson Valley, Reno and the greater Lake Tahoe area from Saturday night through Monday morning. Valley rain and high elevation snow are forecasted for the next few days.
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